Chest-opening is a popular feature in Counter-Strike 2 that allows players to discover weapon skins, rare knives, and gloves. A CS2 case is a cosmetic-only package. The odds of getting certain items depend on their rarity levels:
Some players luck out and find an exclusive after a couple of openings, while others go through dozens of cases and don’t get any Classified items or higher.
Knowing case drop rates, rarity levels, and skin states can help players understand the system and why some items are much rarer.
How Do CS2 Cases Work?
In each CS2 weapon case, you know beforehand from the game that there are a certain number of skins categorized by their rarity. Before opening a case, players can browse potential item rewards. However, the case’s drop is random, so when a player opens it, they can get any item from the box.
To review all CS2 cases and see a description of each, look up the complete collection, study the case rewards, and find cases that include a particular weapon skin, knife, or glove. Since no two cases have the same list of cosmetic items, you will have a hard time figuring out how their contents are different even if the probabilities for each rare class are the same. You usually open most traditional weapon cases with a key. A randomly generated rare item based on the probability of that rarity will drop first, then the game will assign more properties to it, like the condition of the weapon and what kind of paint job it looks like.
Drops of CS2 Cases by Rarity
CS2 weapon cases have a fixed probability distribution, and it’s clear that lower-rarity skins drop more often than rare knives and gloves.
Valve’s Chinese publishing partner, Perfect World, shared the percentages below, the source of the drop-chance data.
| Rarity | Color | Drop Chance | Approximate Odds |
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% | 1 in 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Rare Special Item | Gold | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
Almost 80% of weapon case openings drop Mil-Spec skins, meaning they are by far the most common rarity of all the others.
Very rarely appearing (approximately 1 out of 5 or 6) cases give out only a few types of items, like Restricted and Classified skins, while other items can only become available through Covert skin series.
To get to the rares, you need to reach the gold tier. Depending on the case you open, you’ll get either a knife or a pair of high-quality gloves.
Which Knife You Will Find Most Probable If You Open CS2 Cases?
Top picks among CS2 knife collectors include Doppler, Fade, and Case Hardened finishes. If any of these popular models come your way in a case, they’re likely to become a cherished addition to your inventory.
You have a good chance about 0.26% of getting a rare special (gold item) every time you open a case, meaning you should open approximately 385 cases (1 in 385) to get at least one such rare.
Nevertheless, even if you open 385 cases, you still cannot be sure you’ll get a knife or gloves. In fact, the chance of getting at least one gold (rare special) item from 385 opened cases is about 63.3%.
Not only that, but each case also comes with different sets of rare knives. In other words, getting a particular knife model that you have been longing for would be a really rare phenomenon. Getting any gold (rare special) item is already considered a good find.
How StatTrak Affects Odds on CS2 Skins
StatTrak refers to a rare characteristic of some weapon skins and knives. You can literally use it to count the kills the weapon/knife gets, making the combination of a StatTrak skin and an engraved number a sought-after collector’s item.
For those eligible weapon drops, the chance to land a StatTrak weapon or knife is roughly 10%, so essentially the StatTrak versions are about ten times less common than their non-StatTrak equivalents.
The table demonstrates how different item classes relate to each other in terms of drops:
| Item Category | StatTrak Drop Chance | Approximate Odds |
| Mil-Spec | 7.992% | 1 in 13 |
| Restricted | 1.598% | 1 in 63 |
| Classified | 0.320% | 1 in 313 |
| Covert | 0.064% | 1 in 1,563 |
| Rare Knife | 0.026% | 1 in 3,846 |
The knife figure applies to cases containing eligible StatTrak knives. Gloves do not have StatTrak versions, and Souvenir skins cannot receive this feature.
CS2 Skin Wear Conditions and Float Values
A skin’s rarity is only one part of what determines its looks and popularity. Every weapon skin has a float value that indicates how used or new it looks.
In general, float values range from 0 to 1, with smaller floats indicating a cleaner appearance.
| Wear Condition | Float Range |
| Factory New | 0.00 to 0.07 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 to 0.15 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 to 0.38 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 to 0.45 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 to 1.00 |
The community has observed that wear conditions aren’t distributed evenly. For skins that support the full float range, Factory New appearances are estimated to be around %3, but of course probabilities may differ according to a skin’s allowed float range.
Some skins have float-range limitations that prevent them from appearing in every wear condition. As a consequence, their available float range becomes especially significant.
In addition, paint seeds create new variants. These random numbers determine how the pattern looks on a weapon.
They can also create rare combinations, such as Case Hardened Blue Gems.
Do Souvenir Packages Have Different Drop Odds?
Some evidence suggests Souvenir Packages might have different drop probabilities.
Souvenir packs offer commemorative weapon skins and are associated with Counter-Strike tournaments.
They are different from the usual weapon cases because they are based on collection rarity levels, and they never contain StatTrak items.
With packages featuring six rarity types, the commonly cited probability distribution shows a fivefold decrease in the chance of obtaining the next tier.
| Souvenir Rarity | Estimated Drop Chance |
| Consumer Grade | 80% |
| Industrial Grade | 16% |
| Mil-Spec | 3.2% |
| Restricted | 0.64% |
| Classified | 0.128% |
| Covert | 0.0256% |
The numbers above indicate a general 6-tier distribution, not fixed percentages for every Souvenir package. Rarity availability depends on the collection. In some collections, there are only 2 or 3 rarity levels, so that you won’t base your probabilities on the entire chain.
Do Previous Case Openings Affect Your Chances?
CS2 cases treat each opened case as an independent random event. So, for example, you won’t get a better chance of getting a rare one because you opened a few common ones one after another in the last few cases.
Various elements have no impact on the probabilities of rarities:
- The number of opened cases in the past.
- Your Steam account age.
- The moment or day you open a case.
- Whether a precious skin was featured in your last opening.
In this regard, it does not mean that an opening with a series of low-value mil-spec skins will necessarily provide you with a covert or a gold skin next.
FAQ
What’s the Rarest Item You Can Receive from a CS2 Case?
Besides gold items, knives and gloves are the rarest standard types, with an approximate 0.26% chance of getting them, models you can find on Tradeit. Certain models, finishes, patterns, and float combinations can make those items extremely rare.
Is it Possible to Choose Specific Skins from a CS2 Case?
Definitely, case rewards are based on luck, so you can’t guarantee your favorite skins. Still, people who want special skins can check out each skin on Tradeit to find what they want online, rather than waiting for a particular case.
Are CS2 Case Odds the Same for Every Case?
Normal CS2 weapon cases have the same general rarity chances. Nevertheless, their skins and hidden items can vary. Probability schemes for souvenir cases, Armory rewards, and other container types have likely been modified.